Political scientist explains what opportunities Trump brings for Ukraine

In the midst of its fight for survival, Ukraine is facing a new factual situation with an uncertain outcome: Donald Trump has won the US presidential election and will move into the White House on January 20, 2025. Additionally, the government in Germany fell apart.

Oleksandr Kraiev. Photo: Private

This is a scenario for Ukraine which its representatives wanted to avoid, says political scientist Oleksandr Kraiev. He heads the North America program at “Ukrainian Prism“, a foreign policy think tank in Kyiv. It is difficult to work together with unpredictable, illogical and inconsistent partners – and that is exactly what Trump stands for. For Ukraine, this means an unpleasant constellation. “Especially because of the negotiations coming up and especially of all the topics brought to the negotiation table,” says Kraiev with a view to possible cessions of territory for security guarantees; there are no dates in sight for such negotiations yet.

Contradictory narratives

Kraiev cannot finally conclude how the future US president should be assessed with regard to the war. The political scientist speaks of various narratives with Trump, some of which are contradictory and yet coexist, and cites examples: On the one hand, Trump has repeatedly described Ukraine as corrupt and in the meantime even accused President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being partly responsible for the Russian attack on Ukraine and that a bad deal is better than war. Andererseits betonte er mehrfach das Leiden der ukrainischen Bevölkerung. As president, he would have bombed Moscow in 2022 in response to the invasion. And despite all the criticism of Zelenskyy, Trump showed great appreciation for the Ukrainian president’s solidarity call after the attempted assassination. Furthermore, it was Trump who, during his presidency, lifted the restrictions on Javelin anti-tank missiles, for example, thus enabling Ukraine to defend itself more effectively.

At least one conclusion can be drawn for Kraiev from all this:

He wants to end the war as quickly as possible, by all necessary means, with all necessary negotiations and under all circumstances.

For him, the election was less about which candidate was better or worse, but rather who posed more risk for Ukraine: Trump is undoubtedly a risk-taker. “But that’s not meant in a completely negative way,” he notes.

Mutual benefit

This is because Trump’s “dangerous, risky and unpredictable” policy could also be directed against Putin. In the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Kraiev has already observed anticipation regarding Trump’s presidency and the belief that Trump could benefit Ukraine. Especially as the US president could also benefit from a commitment to Ukraine. The political scientist recognizes two goals in Trump’s policy:

• Improve the image: Trump likes to present himself as a strong man, a determined and powerful politician. He could achieve hero status with a success in Ukraine. “Ending Russian aggression in Ukraine, helping another state, winning against a great dictatorship, against the greatest threat to American democracy and American national security – that is the best image-building Trump can imagine,” says Kraiev. He could then even stylize himself as the savior of the democratic West. Especially as the Russian interference in the 2016 US elections, as detailed in the Mueller report, had a negative impact on his election campaign.
• Profit: With its natural resources and low prices, Russia could present itself as an attractive trading partner and try to get rid of the sanctions regime. However, arming Ukraine would be a task of the century – one that could bring a lot of money into the American industry. “Trump will certainly like such a deal,” Kraiev is convinced.

However, if this strategy does not work, Ukraine is at risk of losing its most important supporter – and without its continued arms deliveries, probably the war.

Priority on domestic policy

However, Kraiev assumes that some time will pass before then. Trump’s first priority would be domestic policy reforms and to get rid of political opponents inside the country. “All these issues will trigger domestic political or even a constitutional crisis,” he says. This is likely to keep Trump busy for at least three to four months of his presidency until he can devote himself seriously to foreign policy issues such as Ukraine, NATO or other partners.

US Congress of great importance for Ukraine

For Ukraine, however, the congressional elections are even more important than the US presidential elections. “Any kind of imbalance in Congress and a Congress that is not able to work in early December would be a big problem for Ukraine,” says Kraiev. The focus of Ukrainian foreign policy should therefore be on “parliamentary diplomacy”. Although the president is the most present figure: “But at the same time, most of our issues are decided in Congress.”

Previous aid packages for Ukraine were ultimately approved with bipartisan support despite interim disputes and delays. A draft by Trump and the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, provided a similar budget and even more guarantees for Ukraine than Biden’s version. “Basically, we see that we still have support from a large part of the Republican Party; from the conservative and the Trump camp,” summarizes Kraiev. Added to this is the largely united support of the Democrats.

At the time of the talks on Thursday evening, the Republicans were still a few seats short of the majority they had already secured in the Senate. The votes have not yet been counted in full. In view of the narrow majorities in both chambers, Kraiev still expects both parties to work together: “The Ukraine resolutions have a better chance of success under these circumstances.”

Important dates in December 2024

Ukraine must await the formal processes before it can play an active role here. On December 17, the US Electoral College will meet to elect the president. December 20 will be equally important: the US budget is currently temporarily approved until then. The outcome of the further debate will also determine how high the budget for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan will be, according to Kraiev. Ukraine must prepare itself and provide the necessary information about its requirements in order to stop the Russian advance. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is attempting to provide Ukraine with the remaining six billion US dollars of the current aid package for the transitional period.

Germany’s chaos also brings opportunities

With Germany, a second important partner of Ukraine is now sinking into domestic political quarrels. The dismissal of the Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, and the subsequent withdrawal of the FDP from the traffic light coalition means a minority government without a stable majority in parliament. New elections, in turn, could strengthen the forces opposing aid to Ukraine.

Although Germany is not one of Kraiev’s research areas, it can be viewed from a fundamental perspective. “Any political instability among our allies, especially among our most important allies, is a negative point for Ukraine,” summarizes Kraiev. Because more chaos means more opportunities for Russia.

However, similar to the USA, such a change also brings opportunities. The Bundestag (parliament), Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and arms companies such as Rheinmetall have repeatedly signaled their willingness to provide more support to Ukraine. “The only weak point in this chain was Scholz,” is Kraiev’s assessment. Ukraine could therefore also benefit from a change at the top. However, this should not obscure the fact that political crises and instability without a broader context are fundamentally bad for Ukraine.